File Entry: Calculate the quasi-extinction probability documentation

Created: 2014-08-14 12:05:06
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Version created on: 2014-08-14 12:05:06


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This documentation (tutorial to run the workflow) explains how to run a workflow that belongs to the pack with same name.

This workflow estimates by simulation the quasi-extinction probability time cumulative distribution function for a structured population in an independently and identically distributed (iid) stochastic environment. This workflow is based on the popbio package (stoch.quasi.ext - Calculate quasi-extinction threshold, Stubben, Milligan and Nantel, 2013) based on the MATLAB code in Box 7.5 (Morris and Doak 2002). For more details of the analysis see: Calculating the probability of hitting a quasi-extinction threshold by time t, method: simulating extinction probabilities (; Morris and Doak 2002, pag: 241-244 and Caswell 2001, pag: 443-444).

This model do not permit extinction, however we can study quasi-extinction (Caswell 2001). A population is quasi-extinct if it shrinks to a specific fraction of its current size (Ginsbur et al 1982 in Caswell 2001). The quasi-extinction threshold can be chosen in the belief that it would pose a significant threat of the real exaction (Caswell 2001).

METHOD: SIMULATING EXTINCTION PROBABILITIES Keep track of whether the total population density (or the density summed across a subset of the classes with which we are particularly concerned, such as the reproductive classes) has fallen below the quasiextinction threshold each year. The fraction of realizations that first hit the threshold during or before year t gives the cumulative probability of extinction (Morris and Doak 2002). This workflow performs such a calculation.


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